Snow Day Calculator

A just-for-fun estimate of the chance school is cancelled tomorrow, from the forecast snowfall and temperature. Calculates instantly in your browser.

Chance of a snow day

-

Verdict-

Show the math

Snowfall drives the chance on a saturating curve:

chance ≈ 100 × (1 − e−snow / 4), adjusted for temperature

About 4 inches gives a coin-flip and 12 inches is near-certain. Temperatures below freezing add a little for icy roads; above freezing subtracts as snow melts. This is just for fun, always check your district's official channels. All math runs locally in your browser.

What this does

A snow day calculator gives a light-hearted estimate of the chance that school is cancelled tomorrow, based on the forecast snowfall and temperature. It is a novelty — not a real prediction of any school district’s decision.

How to use it

  1. Enter the forecast snowfall in inches.
  2. Enter the expected temperature in °F.
  3. Read the estimated chance and verdict.
  4. Cross your fingers and check your district’s official channels.

How it works

Snowfall is the dominant factor on a saturating curve — about 4 in gives a coin-flip and 12 in is near-certain. Temperatures below freezing add a little for icy roads, while above-freezing temperatures subtract because snow melts.

chance ≈ 100 × (1 − e^(−snow / 4)), adjusted for temperature

Understanding your result

A higher percentage means a better chance of a day off, but it is only a bit of fun — real closures depend on road crews, local policy, and timing that no formula can capture. Always rely on your school or district’s official announcement.

Example

A 6 in forecast at 25°F comes out around 80% — "very likely".

Sources & methodology

Last updated .

Frequently asked questions

Is this a real prediction?

No — it is purely for fun. Actual snow days depend on road conditions, district policy, the timing of the storm, and local judgement, none of which a simple formula can know.

What raises the chance most?

Heavy snowfall has the biggest effect, with cold temperatures adding a little because roads stay icy. Warm forecasts lower the chance because snow melts.

Is anything stored?

No. Everything is calculated locally in your browser.